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“Precision … Statistical and Mathematical Methods in Horse Racing” provides an in-depth exploration of the mathematical and statistical methods used in handicapping and betting techniques. It offers a comprehensive introduction to differentiations, combinatorics, normal distribution, kernel smoothing, and other key mathematical and statistical tools. The book is crafted in an accessible language, with a careful balance of jargon and equations, making it easily understandable for a broad readership.
Further enhancing its practicality, the book offers more than 20 professional programs available for free download, enabling readers to effortlessly apply the methodologies discussed. The book is neatly divided into three core sections: horse handicapping (Chapters 2-6), wagering (Chapters 7-9), and practical application of theories (Chapters 10-11).
Chapter 1 sets the stage by explicating how long-term gains can be achieved in horse racing. The subsequent chapters delve into horse handicapping, beginning with the analysis of racing forms in Chapter 2. Other important handicapping factors such as weight carried, jockeys, trainers, and pedigrees are examined in Chapter 3. Advanced statistical methods, like chi-square test and kernel smoothing, are introduced in Chapter 4 to further dissect the previously discussed handicapping factors.
Chapters 5 and 6 are dedicated to probability estimations. Here, readers will be introduced to normal distribution and multinominal logistic regression for estimating the winning probability of each racehorse. Chapter 6 debunks misconceptions in estimating placed probability.
Wagering, another crucial aspect, is addressed in Chapters 7 and 8, with a focus on the Kelly criterion and hedging. Chapter 9, with its theories on combinatorics, is a must-read for those aiming to hit exotic pools.
The author’s personal experiences in betting syndicate and tips on becoming a successful professional horseplayer are shared in Chapters 10 and 11. While the mathematics in the book may challenge